Friday, November 21, 2008

Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution

By Irwin Greenstein

Mother Nature has its own beating in store for already battered solar energy stocks. As if the plunging price of oil wasn’t enough to bring solar stocks to their knees, the new report by the United Nations shows how China’s toxic pollution may hinder the development of the country’s burgeoning solar industry.

The putrid haze of Beijing that has engulfed China and greater Asia is reducing the amount of sunlight that actually reaches the ground, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program.

In addition to being responsible for millions of deaths and blighted crop yields, these so-called Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) have dimmed China’s skies to the extent that the country’s solar initiative, and its huge solar industry, could become DOA.

As it stands now, Chinese solar stocks are on life support — depleting the portfolios of investors who got in at the top of the China IPO solar bubble of 2006-2007.

The losses have been staggering…

  1. Solarfun Power Holdings Co. (Nasdaq:SOLF) has a 52-week range of $4.20 - $40.19 - a drop of 89.5%
  2. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE:TSL) fell from 56.50 to 8.51 over the past 52 weeks - for a loss of 84.9%.
  3. Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP) saw it’s 52-week price plunge to $9.53 from $90.00 - a loss of 89.4%
  4. And JA Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq:JASO) fell from $27.00 to 2.01 over the past 52 weeks - a loss of 92.5%.

In a conference call to analysts on November 12th, JA Solar CEO Samuel Yang said “At this moment the market reaction has been panic.”

Now it appears that China’s home market for solar products is facing a very dim future as well from decades of pollution.

ABCs reflect solar radiation back to space by absorbing heat in the atmosphere.

In China, ABCs can cut sunlight on the Earth’s surface in two ways. Fossil-fuel particles such as sulphates reflect and scatter rays back into space, while black carbon in soot, absorbs sunlight before it reaches the ground.

According to the report, smog blocks 10-25% of the sunlight that should be reaching terra firma in China.

This isn’t just a thin layer of pollution blocking out the sun. In some places, it can be a mile thick. It can stretch from the Arabian Peninsula to the Yellow Sea, sometimes drifting as far east as California.

The U.N report says “In China the observed dimming trend from the 1950s to the 1990s was about 3-4 per cent per decade, with the larger trends after the 1970s.”

What does this mean for investors?

Those of you who tend to be bottom feeders should stay away from China solar stocks at any price. As we all know, when it comes to stock markets nothing is permanent. But zero is the share price we could be looking at for some these fallen IPO stars.

Disclosure: no positions

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